Sunday, January 09, 2005

Is Beltran worth $17 million/year?

Apparently Omar Minaya and the Mets think he is. Reports have Carlos Beltran signing a 7 year deal for $119 Million. Yep, that's $17 Million a season.

This past week Tim Kurkjian wrote a good article for on Beltran's value. There are several questions you have to ask about Beltran:

  • is Beltran worth $17 million?
  • does Beltran deserve a 7 year deal?
  • does any player deserve a 7 year deal?

My answer would be NO across the board. I think Carlos Beltran is a very good player. What he did in the playoffs last year was incredible to watch. You have to remember that was a very small sample size. There is no doubt that Beltran played very well on the big stage. When you start to look at the bigger picture you have to wonder about making a $17 million/year investment in a player who's numbers are more comparable to Bobby Bonds than they are Barry Bonds.

Beltran's career numbers are not even close to Vlad Guerrero, but he is asking far more than Vlad received in his monster contract from the Angels last off season. According to DugoutDollars Vlad is making about $14 Million/year. The funny thing is that teams like the Mets are actually considering paying Beltran the coin Boras is asking for.

Scott Boras is the best agent in the game today. I still giggle when I think about how he had the Rangers bidding against themselves in the A-Rod sweepstakes a few years back. Earlier this week when he said five teams had made the minimum bid of $120 Million over seven years you had to laugh. There is no way that was true. But all is fair in negotiations and Boras is gonna get his clients the most money possible.

Seven years is just too many years to sign any player in MLB. You have no idea what will happen to that player next month yet alone in six or seven years. When the Reds signed Junior Griffey to their deal before 2000 they had no idea that Griff's career was about to be filled with injuries. When the Cubs signed Sosa to his last extension it looked like a happy ending to Sammy's career. Look at what has happened. I wouldn't sign any player in MLB to a seven year deal. Players careers are just too unpredictable.

If you take a look at the NL Central you have to like the Cubs situation. In addition to Beltran the Astros have lost Kent, Wade Miller, and Berkman will start the year on the DL because he tore his knee up playing flag football. All of this and Roger Clemens is threatening to retire again. The Cubs have holes ladies and gents, but the Astros prove it can always be worse.

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