John Dooley requested some time back that we take a look at some of the home openers at the friendly confines. Well here we go.
I'm gonna start the look back at some of the home openers by taking a look at 1982. Not because it's the years the Tribsters bought the club, but because of who was on the hill for the Northsiders. Fergie Jenkins was back in the blue pinstripes after 8 season in the American League. The future HOFer might have been in the twilight of his great career, but you couldn't tell in that Wrigley Field opener. Fergie allowed no runs over a strong 6-2/3rd innings and gave way to a young pitcher named Lee Smith who wrapped everything up in a 5-0 Cubs win on Opening Day 1982.
Game Played on Friday, April 9, 1982 (D)
at Wrigley Field
NY N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 - 0 6 1
CHI N 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 x - 5 7 1
BATTING
New York Mets AB R H RBI BB SO PO A
Wilson cf 5 0 1 0 0 0 2 0
Backman 2b 4 0 2 0 0 0 7 1
Foster lf 4 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
Kingman 1b 4 0 0 0 0 1 7 3
Valentine rf 4 0 2 0 0 0 0 0
Stearns c 3 0 1 0 1 0 5 1
Brooks 3b 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 0
Gardenhire ss 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 3
Staub ph 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Veryzer ss 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Jorgensen ph 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Scott p 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 3
Sweet ph 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Puleo p 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Orosco p 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Rajsich ph 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Totals 33 0 6 0 3 6 24 13
FIELDING -
DP: 1.
E: Veryzer (1).
BATTING -
2B: Backman (1,off Jenkins).
HBP: Brooks (1,by Jenkins).
Team LOB: 10.
BASERUNNING -
SB: Stearns (1,2nd base off Jenkins/Moreland); Wilson (2,2nd base off Jenkins/Moreland).
Chicago Cubs AB R H RBI BB SO PO A
Wills 2b 4 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
Bowa ss 4 3 2 0 0 0 4 1
Buckner 1b 3 2 1 2 1 0 11 0
Durham rf 3 0 1 1 1 0 2 0
Moreland c 4 0 2 2 0 1 7 0
Henderson lf 4 0 0 0 0 1 1 0
Sandberg 3b 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
Waller cf 2 0 1 0 1 0 2 0
Jenkins p 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
Smith p 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2
Totals 27 5 7 5 4 5 27 9
FIELDING -
E: Jenkins (1).
BATTING -
HR: Buckner (1,4th inning off Scott 1 on, 0 out).
SH: Jenkins 2 (2,off Scott 2).
Team LOB: 4.
BASERUNNING -
SB: Bowa (2,3rd base off Orosco/Stearns).
CS: Durham (1,2nd base by Scott/Stearns).
PITCHING
New York Mets IP H R ER BB SO HR
Scott L(0-1) 6 6 3 2 1 5 1
Puleo 1.2 0 2 2 2 0 0
Orosco 0.1 1 0 0 1 0 0
Totals 8 7 5 4 4 5 1
Chicago Cubs IP H R ER BB SO HR
Jenkins W(1-0) 6.2 5 0 0 3 3 0
Smith SV(1) 2.1 1 0 0 0 3 0
Totals 9 6 0 0 3 6 0
WP: Jenkins (1).
HBP: Jenkins (1,Brooks).
Umpires: Bruce Froemming, Jim Quick, John Kibler, Dick Stello
Time of Game: 2:34 Attendance: 26,712
Thanks to Retrosheet.org for this boxscore.
Friday, March 10, 2006
Thursday, March 09, 2006
Best interest of Baseball & an Open Letter to Bud Selig
13 months ago I called on Bud Selig to take some action to protect Hank Aaron's homerun record. At that time the media was in a frenzy due to the release of Jose Canseco's book. Here is what I wrote on this very page:
Thanks in large part to Bonds breaking down (draw your own conclusions why) last year, Selig still has the chance to do what is right for this sport. He can protect baseball's sacred HR numbers of 714 and 755. Last I checked, Bud still has "the best interest of baseball" clause. He has never used the clause, Selig has been a commisioner that has worked with owners and the players union to find compromise on many issues. As a baseball fan, I see no room for compromise on this issue.
Just like last February, once again baseball finds themselves amidst another firestorm, surrounding guess who. The allegations made against Barry Bonds this week in SI had me wondering where Commish Bud Selig is (and has been) on the whole Bonds issue. Selig has really stayed below the radar on this. This morning I stumbled upon this Phil Rogers column in the morning Trib. Rogers writes:
Rogers goes on to tell us about Selig's response to the article:
You should be concerned Bud, you should be damn concerned. But, as I read into this maybe Bud is starting to see the light.
There is a real possibility that Bonds is going to break both records very quickly. Breaking a record like Ruth's or Aaron's should be celebrated by the sport. What will there be to celebrate if Bonds breaks the record? What should be a proud moment for Baseball, similar to Ripken beating Gehrig's streak, will be a black eye for the sport. Unless you can come up with some proof real fast that Barry's clean (wink-wink, nod-nod--oh wait, that's what started this whole mess in the 90's)
----------An Open Letter to Commisioner Selig-----------
Mr. Selig,
I ask you to take a long look at the case made against Barry Bonds in the ongoing Balco investigation and in the new book Game of Shadows.
Put Bonds on a temporary leave from the Giants and conduct an investigation into this. Bring in an outside investigator like Giamatti did with John Dowd. Get to the bottom of this thing.
If he comes up clear, great let's all move on. If the case made in SI and the book Game of Shadows is correct it's time to invoke the best interest of baseball clause and suspend Bonds. Let the Union fight you on this. I think for once you may actually have public opinion on your side.
One can make the case that the steroid era will be your legacy as Commisioner. You have the opportunity to protect the records of Aaron and Ruth from the gaudy power numbers of the steroid era.
Thanks,
CCD
----------------------------------------------------
Selig and Alderson need to take their heads out of the sand. Take a long look at what is happening to the sport. They need to do baseball a favor and protect Hank Aaron's record from Bonds, Sosa or any other "'roid slugger". Selig could use his"best interest of baseball clause" to suspend Bonds, Giambi and Sheffield for their part in the Balco scam. A more media friendly option might be to see if Bonds will "voluntarily" retire. This would eliminate the controversey that will follow the suspension of Bonds. Either way, Selig needs to protect Aaron and his 755 homeruns.
Thanks in large part to Bonds breaking down (draw your own conclusions why) last year, Selig still has the chance to do what is right for this sport. He can protect baseball's sacred HR numbers of 714 and 755. Last I checked, Bud still has "the best interest of baseball" clause. He has never used the clause, Selig has been a commisioner that has worked with owners and the players union to find compromise on many issues. As a baseball fan, I see no room for compromise on this issue.
Just like last February, once again baseball finds themselves amidst another firestorm, surrounding guess who. The allegations made against Barry Bonds this week in SI had me wondering where Commish Bud Selig is (and has been) on the whole Bonds issue. Selig has really stayed below the radar on this. This morning I stumbled upon this Phil Rogers column in the morning Trib. Rogers writes:
Commissioner Bud Selig was worried enough about Barry Bonds' possible steroid use to arrange a meeting with him near the San Francisco Giants' training camp in the spring of 2004.
He was seeking to contain any possible damage to the sport as Bonds continued to move up the rankings of career home run hitters.
According to highly placed Major League Baseball sources, Selig extended a vague offer of leniency to Bonds if he had anything he wished to admit, including possible acts of perjury in his testimony to the BALCO grand jury. He
told Bonds the consequences would be "much worse" if he professed innocence and later was revealed as a steroid user.
Rogers goes on to tell us about Selig's response to the article:
According to a close associate, Selig's initial response after reading the book excerpts in Sports Illustrated was: "Why am I not surprised now?"
The Chronicle's Mark Fainaru-Wada and Lance Williams have spent three years covering the story and gained access to a vast array of sources and records. Their reporting for the newspaper raised serious questions about Bonds' denials, but the picture of Bonds' steroid regimen painted in the book left many, including Selig, taken aback.
"It's even worse than I thought," he said, according to a source who had discussed the issue with him. "I'm very concerned."
You should be concerned Bud, you should be damn concerned. But, as I read into this maybe Bud is starting to see the light.
There is a real possibility that Bonds is going to break both records very quickly. Breaking a record like Ruth's or Aaron's should be celebrated by the sport. What will there be to celebrate if Bonds breaks the record? What should be a proud moment for Baseball, similar to Ripken beating Gehrig's streak, will be a black eye for the sport. Unless you can come up with some proof real fast that Barry's clean (wink-wink, nod-nod--oh wait, that's what started this whole mess in the 90's)
----------An Open Letter to Commisioner Selig-----------
Mr. Selig,
I ask you to take a long look at the case made against Barry Bonds in the ongoing Balco investigation and in the new book Game of Shadows.
Put Bonds on a temporary leave from the Giants and conduct an investigation into this. Bring in an outside investigator like Giamatti did with John Dowd. Get to the bottom of this thing.
If he comes up clear, great let's all move on. If the case made in SI and the book Game of Shadows is correct it's time to invoke the best interest of baseball clause and suspend Bonds. Let the Union fight you on this. I think for once you may actually have public opinion on your side.
One can make the case that the steroid era will be your legacy as Commisioner. You have the opportunity to protect the records of Aaron and Ruth from the gaudy power numbers of the steroid era.
Thanks,
CCD
----------------------------------------------------
Tuesday, March 07, 2006
2006 cubs: the infield
to continue with our unfolding preview of the 2006 cubs, we will now consider the strength of this cub team -- the infield.
michael barrett and henry blanco return as the cubs catchers for this year, and this page cannot help but consider that to be a pretty good thing. barrett has come in for a lot of criticism for the failures of the pitching staff which, in the opinion of this writer, are attributable to the pitchers and the fans -- who persist in overrating the quality of the staff and therefore retain outsized expectations of it which are bound to be disappointed in most years. what is less often said is that barrett was the premier offensive catcher in the national league last year, ranking first or second in home runs, hits, total bases and rbi, winning the silver slugger to boot. jim hendry is often maligned in these parts, fairly or unfairly, but this page intends to give credit where it's due -- his obsession with barrett resulted in the cubs acquiring one of the five most productive catchers in the game.
blanco, for his part, provides the cubs with fine defensive work, throwing out 19 of 39 would-be base stealers in 2005 and committing only one error in 439 total chances. he can't hit his way out of a paper bag, but no one is asking him to.
i'm not sure what if anything new remains to be said about derrek lee's performance in 2005, but it was surely a season to rival any in living memory. forty-six homers, 107 rbi, 335/418/662 -- amazing, compelling viewing for any cub fan. it was also a radical outlier -- exceeding his previous career highs in homers (by 43%), doubles (28%), rbi (9%), runs (26%), hits (18%), batting average (19%), on-base percentage (10%), total bases (29%) and slugging percentage (30%).
the problem with once-in-a-lifetime seasons is that they so often do come only once in a lifetime -- it's called a "career year" for a reason. lee will still be a fine player and a keystone for this cub offense if he regresses to his old self in 2006 -- 275/375/510 with 32 homers, 90 runs and 100 rbi is good production from first base, compounded with his top-flight defense. but one should consider that lee scored or drove in 181 of this team's 703 runs last year -- one in four -- and a regression to the mean would, all things being equal, sink the cubs a few rungs lower in the nl offensive standings from the 9th they placed last year. while one can and should hope for a repeat season from lee, to expect it is to ask a lot.
second base is supposedly shaping up as a rotational position in 2006 with todd walker, jerry hairston and neifi perez seeing some playing time there. only the cubs know what todd walker has done to be demoted from the clear-cut starter in 2005 -- complaints about his defense, particularly around the bag and up the middle, don't withstand the obvious offensive advantages he grants over hairston and neifi. this is a player with the second-highest batting average on the 2005 team with over 150 ab and the fourth-best slugging percentage. a team that was offensively mediocre with 400 ab from the third-best slugging second baseman in the nl can hardly withstand his playing time being reduced.
this page has suported jerry hairston in the past as an alternative to neifi perez, jason dubois and korey patterson -- but over todd walker? loyalty has limits -- and although this page thinks hairston a servicable starting second baseman, it's also clear that walker is his superior and should play every day.
there continue to be manifold rumors of walker's imminent shipment, and this page can do nothing to verify or deny them. what it can say, however, is that the loss of walker would be every bit as harmful to the cubs as lee's reversion to his career mean and should not be underestimated in its possible impact.
the biggest question mark in the infield by far, however, seems to be shortstop -- which has ostensibly been handed to ronny cedeno. this page has already said much against the likelihood of success for cedeno, backed by an examination of data, but perhaps another avenue of insight will present more clarity.
let's go down the list of 2005 cubs, shall we, and see who was drafted where. first everyone with over 100 ab:
burnitz -- 1st round 1990
lee -- 1st round 1993
neifi -- undrafted free agent 1993 (17)
aramis -- ufa 1994 (16)
patterson -- 1st round 1998
barrett -- 1st round 1995
walker -- 1st round 1994
hairston -- 11th round 1997
hollandsworth -- 3rd round 1991
nomar -- 1st round 1994
macias -- ufa 1992 (18)
blanco -- ufa 1989 (18)
dubois -- 14th round 2000
murton -- 1st round 2003
then the pitchers with over 20 innings:
maddux -- 2nd round 1984
zambrano -- ufa 1997 (16)
prior -- 1st round 2001
rusch -- 17th round 1993
williams -- 1st round 1999
dempster -- 3rd round 1995
wuertz -- 11th round 1997
wood -- 1st round 1995
mitre -- 7th round 2001
novoa -- ufa 1999 (18)
ohman -- 8th round 1998
remlinger -- 1st round 1987
wellemeyer -- 4th round 2000
hill -- 4th round 2002
in light of this data, what can we say?
of 22 draft-eligible players to contribute meaningfully last year, 11 -- half -- were first-rounders and 16 -- three-quarters -- went in the first four rounds. moreover, note the first-round names: lee, barrett, walker, nomar, burnitz, korey. if you are hitting for any power at a high enough average to stay in the majors, chances are very, very good that you were drafted in the first round. people can cite mike piazza all they want, but the heart of major league lineups are built largely of very-high-caliber draft picks.
more relevantly to cedeno, foreign players are not draft eligible (yet). but what can be said is that the best players are hovered over from early teen years and normally signed within a few weeks of their 16th birthday by whomever has cultivated the best relationship with their family -- on the cubs, this is zambrano and aramis. players who slide into their 17th and 18th years -- blanco, neifi, macias, novoa -- are not so desired and most often demonstrate a far more limited upside.
now -- speaking specifically of cedeno -- this speaks only a bit ill for him, as he was indeed signed by the cubs seven months past his 16th birthday, on august 27, 1999. but compounding that judgment is the fact that most 16th-year signees demonstrate vastly more ability at earlier ages in the minors than cedeno has -- aramis is a good example. cedeno's career path far more resembles that of neifi -- a lot of struggling until the early 20s, when his advancing age and experience starts to work in his favor.
that is the path of a player who is not greatly gifted in the art of hitting but who has managed to scratch out an existence by hook and by crook -- like neifi. and that's the kind of player we should expect cedeno to be. indeed, as was demonstrated by analysis of minor league data, the chances of his even being that good -- of sticking in the majors at all -- are not promising.
in his first year in the bigs, then, this writer would expect cedeno to struggle terribly to get on base -- probably flailing with a sub-.300 obp at times, as the best he's likely going to manage in his career in any year is not much more than a .300 obp.
at least as important but much less talked about is the quality of cedeno's glove. in just 65 games in iowa last season, cedeno managed to commit twelve errors -- nearly taking the team lead from mike fontenot despite playing in half as many games.
no one wants to hear this, but neifi perez has put up 500 ab or more in six of the last eight years -- and more than 300 in the last nine running, every year since he broke in. he's an excellent defensive player and a proven (if offensively null) commodity.
regardless of what the team is saying now, it seems rather hopeless to think that a kid like cedeno -- who suffers to take a pitch and committed so many errors in iowa last year -- is going to stick in front of a gold-glove winner like neifi under dusty baker. cedeno simply doesn't have the power to make pitchers fear him -- and when they find that he will expand the strike zone, he's going to get taken to school by grounding out to second. and if cedeno doesn't present a decided offensive advantage, he won't play.
in short, this page thinks cedeno is being set up to fail. and this writer would go so far as to say that the team expects it -- which is why they have three "second basemen" on the roster, one of which played most of last season as the cubs' shortstop. indeed, the tribune and dusty baker are already managing expectations for the faithful, telling them that neifi is in the running at short. it seems to me that the price of failing to land rafael furcal isn't installing a bright young prospect to play everyday, but to return to the prospect of neifi perez manning the position for most of the year.
the cubs primary option at third, however, is clear cut -- aramis ramirez has become one of the most fearsome young third baseman in baseball. his erratic throwing helped by the glove of derrek lee, he has been sufficient in the field even if his range is not great. but it's hard to even notice next to the thumping brilliance of his stickwork over the last two seasons. at 28 years of age, ramirez is entering his physical prime. nagging injuries have limited his playing time somewhat, but there is a great deal to look forward to for this player in 2006, a contract year. this page would expect ramirez to outshine a more human derrek lee and establish himself as the team's bona fide most valuable player.
john mabry comes aboard this year as a competent bench player to substitute at the corners of the infield and outfield. one shouldn't underestimate the upgrade represented by mabry. barring extended injury, mabry will likely get 200 at-bats -- and far better he than jose macias.
in summary, then, the continued excellence of barrett, aramis and lee will guarantee that the cub infield remains the heart of the club. but this page sees a continuing large role for neifi perez and expanded roles for jerry hairston and ronny cedeno, not to mention the likelihood of some regression on the part of derrek lee, as reasons to cap any hopes of overall improvement. it is possible that the output of this unit could increase -- if aramis plays 162 games, if lee doesn't regress, if walker gets more than 400 ab, if cedeno surprises this writer by playing most of the year in chicago and managing an obp significantly over .307 to do so -- but it seems a slim probability on most counts.
part 1: payroll and expectation
part 2: the outfield
part 3: relief pitching
part 4: the infield
part 5: starting pitching
michael barrett and henry blanco return as the cubs catchers for this year, and this page cannot help but consider that to be a pretty good thing. barrett has come in for a lot of criticism for the failures of the pitching staff which, in the opinion of this writer, are attributable to the pitchers and the fans -- who persist in overrating the quality of the staff and therefore retain outsized expectations of it which are bound to be disappointed in most years. what is less often said is that barrett was the premier offensive catcher in the national league last year, ranking first or second in home runs, hits, total bases and rbi, winning the silver slugger to boot. jim hendry is often maligned in these parts, fairly or unfairly, but this page intends to give credit where it's due -- his obsession with barrett resulted in the cubs acquiring one of the five most productive catchers in the game.
blanco, for his part, provides the cubs with fine defensive work, throwing out 19 of 39 would-be base stealers in 2005 and committing only one error in 439 total chances. he can't hit his way out of a paper bag, but no one is asking him to.
i'm not sure what if anything new remains to be said about derrek lee's performance in 2005, but it was surely a season to rival any in living memory. forty-six homers, 107 rbi, 335/418/662 -- amazing, compelling viewing for any cub fan. it was also a radical outlier -- exceeding his previous career highs in homers (by 43%), doubles (28%), rbi (9%), runs (26%), hits (18%), batting average (19%), on-base percentage (10%), total bases (29%) and slugging percentage (30%).
the problem with once-in-a-lifetime seasons is that they so often do come only once in a lifetime -- it's called a "career year" for a reason. lee will still be a fine player and a keystone for this cub offense if he regresses to his old self in 2006 -- 275/375/510 with 32 homers, 90 runs and 100 rbi is good production from first base, compounded with his top-flight defense. but one should consider that lee scored or drove in 181 of this team's 703 runs last year -- one in four -- and a regression to the mean would, all things being equal, sink the cubs a few rungs lower in the nl offensive standings from the 9th they placed last year. while one can and should hope for a repeat season from lee, to expect it is to ask a lot.
second base is supposedly shaping up as a rotational position in 2006 with todd walker, jerry hairston and neifi perez seeing some playing time there. only the cubs know what todd walker has done to be demoted from the clear-cut starter in 2005 -- complaints about his defense, particularly around the bag and up the middle, don't withstand the obvious offensive advantages he grants over hairston and neifi. this is a player with the second-highest batting average on the 2005 team with over 150 ab and the fourth-best slugging percentage. a team that was offensively mediocre with 400 ab from the third-best slugging second baseman in the nl can hardly withstand his playing time being reduced.
this page has suported jerry hairston in the past as an alternative to neifi perez, jason dubois and korey patterson -- but over todd walker? loyalty has limits -- and although this page thinks hairston a servicable starting second baseman, it's also clear that walker is his superior and should play every day.
there continue to be manifold rumors of walker's imminent shipment, and this page can do nothing to verify or deny them. what it can say, however, is that the loss of walker would be every bit as harmful to the cubs as lee's reversion to his career mean and should not be underestimated in its possible impact.
the biggest question mark in the infield by far, however, seems to be shortstop -- which has ostensibly been handed to ronny cedeno. this page has already said much against the likelihood of success for cedeno, backed by an examination of data, but perhaps another avenue of insight will present more clarity.
let's go down the list of 2005 cubs, shall we, and see who was drafted where. first everyone with over 100 ab:
burnitz -- 1st round 1990
lee -- 1st round 1993
neifi -- undrafted free agent 1993 (17)
aramis -- ufa 1994 (16)
patterson -- 1st round 1998
barrett -- 1st round 1995
walker -- 1st round 1994
hairston -- 11th round 1997
hollandsworth -- 3rd round 1991
nomar -- 1st round 1994
macias -- ufa 1992 (18)
blanco -- ufa 1989 (18)
dubois -- 14th round 2000
murton -- 1st round 2003
then the pitchers with over 20 innings:
maddux -- 2nd round 1984
zambrano -- ufa 1997 (16)
prior -- 1st round 2001
rusch -- 17th round 1993
williams -- 1st round 1999
dempster -- 3rd round 1995
wuertz -- 11th round 1997
wood -- 1st round 1995
mitre -- 7th round 2001
novoa -- ufa 1999 (18)
ohman -- 8th round 1998
remlinger -- 1st round 1987
wellemeyer -- 4th round 2000
hill -- 4th round 2002
in light of this data, what can we say?
now -- speaking specifically of cedeno -- this speaks only a bit ill for him, as he was indeed signed by the cubs seven months past his 16th birthday, on august 27, 1999. but compounding that judgment is the fact that most 16th-year signees demonstrate vastly more ability at earlier ages in the minors than cedeno has -- aramis is a good example. cedeno's career path far more resembles that of neifi -- a lot of struggling until the early 20s, when his advancing age and experience starts to work in his favor.
that is the path of a player who is not greatly gifted in the art of hitting but who has managed to scratch out an existence by hook and by crook -- like neifi. and that's the kind of player we should expect cedeno to be. indeed, as was demonstrated by analysis of minor league data, the chances of his even being that good -- of sticking in the majors at all -- are not promising.
in his first year in the bigs, then, this writer would expect cedeno to struggle terribly to get on base -- probably flailing with a sub-.300 obp at times, as the best he's likely going to manage in his career in any year is not much more than a .300 obp.
at least as important but much less talked about is the quality of cedeno's glove. in just 65 games in iowa last season, cedeno managed to commit twelve errors -- nearly taking the team lead from mike fontenot despite playing in half as many games.
no one wants to hear this, but neifi perez has put up 500 ab or more in six of the last eight years -- and more than 300 in the last nine running, every year since he broke in. he's an excellent defensive player and a proven (if offensively null) commodity.
regardless of what the team is saying now, it seems rather hopeless to think that a kid like cedeno -- who suffers to take a pitch and committed so many errors in iowa last year -- is going to stick in front of a gold-glove winner like neifi under dusty baker. cedeno simply doesn't have the power to make pitchers fear him -- and when they find that he will expand the strike zone, he's going to get taken to school by grounding out to second. and if cedeno doesn't present a decided offensive advantage, he won't play.
in short, this page thinks cedeno is being set up to fail. and this writer would go so far as to say that the team expects it -- which is why they have three "second basemen" on the roster, one of which played most of last season as the cubs' shortstop. indeed, the tribune and dusty baker are already managing expectations for the faithful, telling them that neifi is in the running at short. it seems to me that the price of failing to land rafael furcal isn't installing a bright young prospect to play everyday, but to return to the prospect of neifi perez manning the position for most of the year.
the cubs primary option at third, however, is clear cut -- aramis ramirez has become one of the most fearsome young third baseman in baseball. his erratic throwing helped by the glove of derrek lee, he has been sufficient in the field even if his range is not great. but it's hard to even notice next to the thumping brilliance of his stickwork over the last two seasons. at 28 years of age, ramirez is entering his physical prime. nagging injuries have limited his playing time somewhat, but there is a great deal to look forward to for this player in 2006, a contract year. this page would expect ramirez to outshine a more human derrek lee and establish himself as the team's bona fide most valuable player.
john mabry comes aboard this year as a competent bench player to substitute at the corners of the infield and outfield. one shouldn't underestimate the upgrade represented by mabry. barring extended injury, mabry will likely get 200 at-bats -- and far better he than jose macias.
in summary, then, the continued excellence of barrett, aramis and lee will guarantee that the cub infield remains the heart of the club. but this page sees a continuing large role for neifi perez and expanded roles for jerry hairston and ronny cedeno, not to mention the likelihood of some regression on the part of derrek lee, as reasons to cap any hopes of overall improvement. it is possible that the output of this unit could increase -- if aramis plays 162 games, if lee doesn't regress, if walker gets more than 400 ab, if cedeno surprises this writer by playing most of the year in chicago and managing an obp significantly over .307 to do so -- but it seems a slim probability on most counts.
part 1: payroll and expectation
part 2: the outfield
part 3: relief pitching
part 4: the infield
part 5: starting pitching
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