Thursday, October 05, 2006

revenge of the predictions roundtable, part two

continuing the examination of our inability to prophesy the future, here's more from the preseason predictions roundtable.

STARTING PITCHING QUESTIONS: Name the Cubs starter that will...

-make the most starts

  • Newman - Maddux
  • John Dooley - Maddux 32
  • Mikey P - Maddux
  • Marino - Zambrano
  • MCav - Maddux
  • Vehere - Zambrano
  • CCD - Zambrano
  • gaius marius - maddux
ANSWER: zambrano

this perhaps could be qualified -- maddux is again an ex-cub, but he leads zambrano by a start with 34, and is still making starts in the postseason with the dodgers. but, once maddux was shipped to los angeles, zambrano became the runaway leader.

but the thing to note here is that eight different starters got at least nine starts this season -- happily including youngsters sean marshall (24), rich hill (16), carlos marmol (13), angel guzman (10) and juan mateo (10). this is to be seen as the most beneficial thing to happen to this club all season -- it's exactly what we here would have hoped for, and the revelation of hill and quiet travails of mateo -- two of the best three cub starters in the second half -- could never have been brought to the light of day without it. both young hurlers have made a claim on the 2007 rotation.

-pitch the most innings

  • Newman - Zambrano
  • John Dooley - Maddux
  • Mikey P - Maddux
  • Marino - Zambrano
  • MCav - Maddux
  • Vehere - Zambrano
  • CCD - Zambrano
  • gaius marius - maddux
ANSWER: zambrano

at 214, big z topped 209 innings for the fourth year running, again placing top five in all of baseball in pitches thrown.

-record the most k's

  • Newman - Zambrano
  • John Dooley - Zambrano 188
  • Mikey P - Zambrano
  • Marino - Zambrano
  • MCav - Zambrano
  • Vehere - Zambrano
  • CCD - Zambrano
  • gaius marius - hard to say, but maybe wood
ANSWER: zambrano

it would've taken a major injury to zambrano or a major surprise from marshall this year to change this outcome, which is what the only dissenter was forecasting.

-have the most wins

  • Newman - Maddux
  • John Dooley - Zambrano 14
  • Mikey P - Zambrano
  • Marino - Zambrano
  • MCav - Zambrano
  • Vehere - Zambrano and Maddux (tie)
  • CCD - Zambrano 17
  • gaius marius - maddux
ANSWER: zambrano

second highest still on the club is sean marshall with a laughable six.

-have the best WHIP (min 160 IP)

  • Newman - Maddux
  • John Dooley - Maddux
  • Mikey P - Zambrano
  • Marino - Zambrano
  • MCav - Rusch
  • Vehere - Zambrano
  • CCD - Zambrano
  • gaius marius - maddux
ANSWER: zambrano by default

zambrano was of course the only pitcher to throw 160 innings for the cubs (second being maddux with 136.1), but the surprise of the year here is the pitcher who led all starters in whip at 1.24 -- rich hill. he's been a frequent topic on this page since early in the season, and in making the jump up in high style this season hill has given cub fans a lot to hope for in him.

-have the lowest ERA

  • Newman - Zambrano
  • John Dooley - Zambrano 3.23
  • Mikey P - Zambrano
  • Marino - Zambrano
  • MCav - Zambrano
  • Vehere - Zambrano
  • CCD - Zambrano 3.04
  • gaius marius - maddux
ANSWER: zambrano

zambrano has been the class of the rotation, of course.

RELIEF PITCHING QUESTIONS: Name the Cubs reliever that will...

-have the most appearances

  • Newman - Eyre
  • John Dooley - Eyre, 85(not kidding)
  • Mikey P - Eyre
  • Marino - Howry
  • MCav - Dempster
  • Vehere - Kerry Wood
  • CCD - Eyre
  • gaius marius - eyre
ANSWER: bob howry

howry has not only challenged the cub all-time record for appearances but has crept into the top 50 all-time single-season appearances at 84. will ohman comes down second at an amazing 78 despite spending a bit of time in the minors early this year.

-have the most saves

  • Newman - Dempster
  • John Dooley - Ryan Dempster 21 (out of 28)...notice those aren't a lot of chances, plus, I think he's gonna struggle. Just a hunch. No reasoning
  • Mikey P - Dempster
  • Marino - Dempster
  • MCav - Dempster
  • Vehere - Dempster
  • CCD - Dempster, I wouldn't be surprised if Wood or Howry takes the job at midseason
  • gaius marius - howry
ANSWER: ryan dempster

howry was the only other cub pitcher to record a save (with five) in spite of the fact that dempster has been one of the most singularly spectacular failures as a closer in all of baseball this year. his nine blown saves are exceeded only by jason isringhausen, who has recorded nearly twice as many saves. a cataclysmic may and june should probably have removed dempster from the hot seat in favor of setup duty then -- but this was, after all, dusty baker's team.

-have the most holds

  • Newman - Eyre
  • John Dooley - Howry
  • Mikey P - Howry
  • Marino - Eyre
  • MCav - Dempster
  • Vehere - Wood
  • CCD - Howry
  • gaius marius - eyre
ANSWER: bob howry

part and parcel to having the most appearances by a wide margin -- second was eyre.

-have the best WHIP

  • Newman - Howry
  • John Dooley - Eyre, 1.07
  • Mikey P - Eyre
  • Marino - Howry
  • MCav - Dempster
  • Vehere - Eyre
  • CCD - Howry
  • gaius marius- howry
ANSWER: bob howry

howry's 1.14 to date is just ahead of angel guzman's relief number of 1.15, and of course comes in a sample seven times as large. howry has been the class of the bullpen all season.

the disappointment of these last two catagories has to be scott eyre, one of hendry's expensive offseason troika designed to "fix" the bullpen. the pen itself again finished in the middle of the nl pack -- and while dempster's scintillating suicides grabbed headlines, eyre quietly reverted to his career means in the second half of 2006, posting a 5.49 era in 29 appearances after the all-star break, allowing 36 baserunners in 19.2 innings. eyre, in spite of a run of early season success which conformed to optimistic expectations and so removed him from much late-season scrutiny, was not particularly effective on the year -- his season-long 1.48 whip, .345 obpa and .457 slga are testament to that, ranking with roster chaff like roberto novoa on all counts and confirming his 2005 performance to be the unrepeatable outlier many suspected it was. this page would expect eyre to be 2007's dempster -- mercilessly displaying his long-term form, with an era in the low 4's and whip near 1.50 -- making eyre yet another expensive veteran signed by the cubs coming off an unlikely career year and hendry's bullpen ministrations of last year simply another example of his incompetency.

-have the lowest ERA

  • Newman - Howry
  • John Dooley - Eyre, 1.87
  • Mikey P - Eyre
  • Marino - Howry
  • MCav - Dempster
  • Vehere - Wuertz
  • CCD - Howry
  • gaius marius - howry
ANSWER: mike wuertz

wuertz began the year awfully, making only four disastrous appearances before the all-star break and spending most of the semester in iowa. but in iowa he dominated as he never has before by counteracting his great weakness in the majors heretofore: throwing strikes with consistency. much like hill, wuertz had previously demonstrated a capacity to pitch with control -- his career 3.04 bb/9 in the minors through 2005 certainly proves as much. but, also like hill, forays in the majors were accompanied by the kind of outside corner fishing expeditions which larry rothschild loves and which destroy young careers. it is almost as though wuertz and hill decided together -- at some point in may or june when they were both in des moines -- to ignore rothschild from now on and confront major league hitters by going for the throat. success has followed for both, and as hill has staked his claim as one of the most promising young pitchers in the national league wuertz has -- just perhaps -- become the legitimate major league reliever that his slider long indicated he could be. wuertz's career era is now down to 3.58.

more will be heard from wuertz next season as to whether or not this success is sustainable. but this writer, for one, is encouraged.

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