Friday, July 20, 2007
trend spotting update
from the outset of the year to the cyclical high on game 31, the club went 16-15; from the high to the game 53 low, the club went 6-16; from the low to the high in game 65, they went 8-4; since the high, they have gone a stunning 20-9.
one could reinterpret the game 79 macd low of (-1.15) as a low point; that would revise the breakdown to 9-5 from the high to the game 79 low, and 11-4 since.
in terms of crossover points, the cubs went 16-18 to the negative convergence at game 34; from that convergence to the positive crossover in game 55, they went 8-13; from there to the negative convergence in game 70, 6-7; from that convergence to the positive crossover in game 80, they went 8-2; since then, 10-4.
all the desperation of the early season to the first crossover -- when the cubs were outscxoring the opposition and losing games anyway -- was reversed between games 65 and 80, where the club went six over .500 in spite of scoring 69 and allowing 69. that bout of good luck, offsetting earlier misfortune, has done as much as can be done to revive hopes in 2007. most winning clubs are build on a considerable foundation of good luck, so thank god some has come to this team! and pray it lasts.
since game 80 (july 1), the cubs have scored 75 (5.36 rs/g) and allowed 50 (3.57 ra/s), winning 10 of 14 to get within 3.5 of milwaukee. a quick exam of their july team batting split shows a .326 babip; team pitching split a diminimous .263 babip against. again, don't look a gift horse in the mouth and pray to your deity of choice for continuation.
from the outset to the cyclical high at game 36, the brewers went 25-11; from the high to the low in game 48, 3-9; and from the low to the game 78 high, 18-12; from the high to the low in game 92, 6-8; since, 2-1.
with reference to crossover points, the brewers went 25-14 to the negative convergence at game 39; from that convergence to the positive crossover in game 60, they went 8-13; from that convergence to the negative crossover in game 86, they went 16-10; since then, 5-4.
milwaukee's run differential trend would, on first reading, seem to have bottomed out this week. their july batting split shows a .263 babip, averaging out that torrid june -- but on that same ground they shouldn't be expected to continue just 4.13 rs/g. what july success they have experienced has been more on the back of a pitching staff that's allowed just 4.27 ra/g -- but that too is on the back of a .264 babip against and should revert northwards. this club, like the cubs, should allow about 4.4-4.6 ra/g in normal conditions.
Posted by gaius marius