Friday, June 15, 2007

trend spotting update

the cubs rebounded for their cyclical low on game 53 and experienced a positive crossover/convergence at game 55, evidence of a positive trend that has in the past forecast a winning run of baseball over the following 10-20 games. that was now ten games ago.

from the outset of the year to the cyclical high on game 31, the club went 16-15; from the high to the low, the club went 6-16; since the low, the cubs have gone 8-4.

in terms of crossover points, the cubs went 16-18 to the negative convergence at game 34; from that convergence to the positive crossover in game 55, they went 8-13; since that point, 6-4.

the club has, with this winning bout, forced its run differential macd line into perilously high territory -- currently reading 1.71 -- from which a reversal of trend might be expected at any moment. it would seem, on the basis of this analysis, that the deleriously good times should ebb again imminently.

the division-leading milwaukee brewers experienced a positive crossover/convergence in game 60, which follows on their cyclical extreme of game 48.

from the outset to the cyclical high at game 36, the brewers went 25-11; from the high to the low, 3-9; and from the low to today, a rather anemic 8-10.

with reference to crossover points, the brewers went 25-14 to the negative convergence at game 39; from that convergence to the positive crossover in game 60, they went 8-13; since that point, 3-3.

milwaukee -- in part thanks to a lackluster recovery -- has yet to drive its averages to diverge to such a degree as is normally found to elicit a backlash. and yet they have maintained a sizable five-and-a-half-games lead over the cubs that has retraced mildly from the 8-game lead of may 12 (game 34 for the cubs, 36 for milwaukee) but remains as large as it was on april 30.

there is, it seems, a setup of probability for the brewers to re-establish some of their lead -- the most recent period of incremental expansion (may 28 to june 1, games 49-52 for the cubs, where the club lost 2.5 games on the leader) came when milwaukee had already marked its low in macd (on may 27) and began to rebound as the cubs were still finding a bottom (finally on june 2). as the cubs may be finding their top and the brewers appear perhaps not yet to have, a similar event of reversed causation may be in the offing -- but of course such narrow and specific speculations remain highly variable and represent only the very mildest likelihoods.

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