Three Cubs file for arbitration

On Friday over 100 big league ballplayers filed for arbitration. Included amongst that list were three Chicago Cubs. One should have the Cubs concerned. One isn't a big deal. And one they should laugh at. The three were Carlos Zambrano (the concerning one), Will Ohman (not a big deal), and Mark Prior (the laugher).

This page has spent a bunch of time talking about the Cubs ace. With the monster money Barry Zito pulled from the Giants, the Cubs are coming closer to a day of reckoning with Zambrano. Unlike many of you, I don't see a real easy solution for Zambrano. This is a complicated issue for the Cubs. I understand that you hate to see a pitcher like him leave (like most of you it killed me to watch Greg Maddux win Cy Youngs for the Atlanta Braves). I hate to even consider the fact that the Cubs could down the road make the same mistake with Zambrano. On the other hand, I also understand that giving pitchers long term/dollar filled contracts doesn't make the most financial sense. I don't envy Jim Hendry or the Cubs for the position they are in. They will be criticized regardless of what they do with Big Z.

Now on to the one that is much more fun. The USC graduate Mark "Mr. Reliable" Prior has filed for arbitration. Are you kidding me? I laughed when I saw the kids name. Take your 2006 stats to the arbitrator Mark: 9 games, 1-6 record, a 7.21 ERA, in 43.2 IP, you walked 28, struckout 38, and gaveup 9 HR's. LMAO. He did this damage for $3.65 million! Prior should be paying the Cubs back! Common sense would tell you that Prior should be happy with an invitation to spring training and a chance to compete for the fifth spot in the rotation. But as we know baseball and common sense don't swim in the same waters. I understand that this is nothing but business. Still if I were Prior, I'd be happy with the league minimum. Once again, I'm confusing common sense and baseball.

I'm rooting for this one to wind up in front of the arbitrator. It will be a good laugh!

Cubs invite Gallagher, Pignatiello, Patterson, Colvin and seven others to big league camp

One of the things I enjoy most at Spring Training is seeing the minor league players, we hear so much about, get a taste of big league ball. It's usually early on in the spring and of course late in games that don't count. Still, what a thrill it must be for these youngsters (Lou Boudreau would be proud of that phrase!) to play in games with big league managers coaches and players in the dugout next to them.

As I started to look into my own travel plans for Arizona in a month and a half, I noticed the Northsiders have added several "future stars" to this seasons major league camp. Yesterday the Cubs invited 11 minor leaguers to be non-roster players in the big league camp this spring in Mesa. As Maddog points out at TCHLBC, 22 year old prospect Donnie Veal was absent from the list. Hmmm.

Here are the 11 players:

Pitchers
Sean Gallagher
Adam Harben
Ryan O'Malley
Carmen Pignatiello
Randy Wells

Catcher
Jake Fox

Infielders
Mike Kinkade
Casey McGehee
Eric Patterson

Outfielders
Tyler Colvin
Chris Walker

O'Malley was of course the toast of Cubdom on the afternoon of August 16, 2006, following his impressive major league debut in Houston. As great a story as O'Malley was in 2006 (let's face it there weren't too many good stories wearing the blue pinstripes), he's really not one of the players that interests me. I'm interested in four names that have popped up on Cub prospect lists in recent years: Gallagher, Pignatiello, Patterson and my favorite first round pick Tyler Colvin.

Outside of Veal, the Cubs most talked about pitching prospect this past season had to be 21 year old right hander Sean Gallagher. As a twelfth round pick in the 2004 draft, Gallagher has moved through the Cub system quickly. In his 2-1/2 seasons in the system Gallagher has put up impressive numbers. He's 26-12 with a 2.65 ERA in 65 games. According to Baseball Prospectus Gallagher found some needed speed in 2006:

He gained 2-3 mph on his fastball from 2005; reached Double-A and needed no adjustment period; now has a 91-93 mph fastball

But he lost the control he has displayed at lower levels. Gallagher could start the year at West Tenn or make the jump to Iowa. There is a good chance he could see big league action late in 2007 or sometime in 2008.

24 year old Carmen Pignatiello is probably of interest to me due to the fact that he's from Chicagoland and he's left handed. Pignatiello has been in the Cub system for seven seasons. His numbers are okay, but not great. Over his seven seasons he has compiled a 47-43 record in 190 games, 112 starts, with an ERA of 3.75. In the Arizona Fall League Pignatiello pitched out of the bullpen and had great success. In 10 games the lefty pitched 10.1 innings racking up 15 strikeouts and only 1 run. The Providence Catholic grad has proven he can pitch at AA. He will pitch at Iowa this season. The realistic hope for Pignatiello is that at some point soon he will contribute at the big league level as a lefty specialist out of the bullpen.

Second sacker Eric Patterson had an exceptional Arizona Fall League. Patterson hit .345 and was named to the 2006 All-Prospects Team. This past summer the Georgia Tech product hit .276 splitting time between West Tenn and Iowa. Unlike his older brother Corey, Eric is willing to take the occasional walk. He took 52 in 2006. Unfortunately like his older brother he strikes out quite a bit. Patterson will be 24 this April, he will start the season at Iowa and will be an injury away from playing second at Wrigley Field.

This past June was a big month for Tyler Colvin. He was Clemson's CWS Super Regionals hero and the Cubs surprising 1st round (13th overall) draft pick. While I question Tim Wilken selecting Colvin with the thirteenth pick, the Cubs have to hope the 21 year old, toolsy, left handed power hitter can make a quick trek through the Cubs minor league system. The issue that I have with Colvin is that he's just another player in the Cub system that doesn't walk and strikesout a bunch. In 64 games at Boise Colvin struckout 55 times while only taking 17 walks. He is young so hopefully he will find some patience. I imagine Colvin will start the season at Peoria, but that's nothing more than a guess.

As much as I look forward to seeing the Arizona sun this spring it will be fun to see these players make late inning appearances in early Cactus League games.

watching paint dry

with the cubs having received their coat of whitewash for 2007, january and february look to, for cubs fans, amount to watching the paint dry. endless iterations of prognostication are sure to hit the web, here as elsewhere, and will almost surely be the main source of conversation between here and the reporting of pitchers and catchers (when we get to start talking about mark prior).

as such, maddog over at tcnlbc points out one of the early projections, which uses this data to land the cubs squarely behind the cardinals at 87 wins and a wild card berth.

the base data is interesting, caveat emptor, and here's how some key cubs players look. first the starters:

Pitcher	Age	IP*	H*	HR*	BB*	SO*	hb*	Run	ER*	ERA
Zambrano,Carlos	26	205	173	21	87	196	9	89	82	3.60
Hill,Rich	27	167	143	23	68	181	7	78	72	3.89
Lilly,Ted	31	169	160	24	68	155	6	88	81	4.32
Marquis,Jason	29	200	226	34	68	107	13	127	116	5.23
Prior,Mark	27	110	100	16	41	118	7	55	50	4.11
Miller,Wade	30	74	74	9	34	57	3	40	37	4.50

and then the bullpen:

Pitcher	Age	IP*	H*	HR*	BB*	SO*	hb*	Run	ER*	ERA
Wuertz,Michael	28	64	53	7	24	75	2	27	25	3.53
Howry,Bob	34	61	57	7	14	49	3	27	24	3.56
Dempster,Ryan	30	78	74	7	35	69	3	38	35	4.05
Wood,Kerry	30	68	61	10	25	68	3	33	31	4.12
Eyre,Scott	35	62	57	8	26	61	2	31	29	4.18
Ohman,Will	30	55	48	7	26	60	3	27	25	4.07
Cotts,Neal	27	58	54	8	23	56	3	29	26	4.02

compared to some others -- notably bill james' projections for the pitching staff or even the 2007 zips -- these look somewhat more pragmatic and possible to this writer's eye. there just as little to object to in the individual offensive estimations.

is 87 wins then a good estimate of the approximate level of output for this club? this writer still finds that to be somewhat optimistic considering recent history, despite the ongoing difficulties of the major rivals within the division in finding starting pitching. it's hard not to agree with buccoblog when it wonders:

Someone tell me how the Cubs are going to be +184 runs. Anybody? 75 I see.. 125 a long shot.. but 184???? Man.. I do believe Diamond Minds blew a gasket on that projection.

indeed -- unless soriano turns out to be a minor god, squeezing 804 runs out of this offense will be impossible. perhaps there's a methodological error afoot in the diamondmind simulation, but the results are at least within the bounds of rational analysis.

however, clearly much is being laid at the doorstep of rich hill and mark prior (and, to a lesser extent, wade miller). in the estimation of this page, how they fare in 2007 remains the focus of real aspirations for october.